New vehicle CPI rose just 0.502% year over year as of June 2026, which tells you the national picture on new car pricing has mostly normalized. But normalization on paper does not mean every dealer lot near you is fully stocked, and it does not stop a finance manager from trying a markup on a specific trim that is genuinely scarce. The auto inventory to sales ratio sits at 1.412 as of June 2026, down 2.486% from a year earlier, which means inventory is a bit tighter than last year even as prices have stabilized. That gap between flat national pricing data and tight local supply is exactly where markups survive.
Why Markups Still Show Up Even When National Pricing Is Flat
Markups persist because inventory is uneven, not because prices are broadly rising. A popular hybrid trim or a specific truck configuration can sell out at one dealer while a nearly identical unit sits on a lot forty miles away. Dealers price to what is scarce on their own lot, not to a national index. Treat any markup as a local supply claim, and verify it before you accept it.
How to Verify Whether Inventory Is Actually Tight
Check dealer websites within a 50 to 100 mile radius before you believe a markup is justified. If three or four dealers show the same trim in stock or arriving within two weeks, the dealer in front of you has a pricing choice, not a supply problem. Call and ask directly what their allocation looks like for the next 30 days. A dealer with real scarcity will usually tell you when the next shipment lands, because they want you to wait for it. One that dodges the question is more likely padding margin than managing supply.
What to Say When a Dealer Adds a Market Adjustment
Ask for the addendum sticker removed and negotiate from MSRP, not from the marked-up number. A market adjustment is not a manufacturer fee. It is a dealer add-on, which means it is fully negotiable and, at many stores, fully removable if you are willing to walk. Bring a printed quote from a competing dealer showing the same trim at or near MSRP. That single piece of paper does more work than any argument you can make verbally.
When Waiting Beats Negotiating
If the specific trim you want is genuinely on backorder everywhere, ordering from the factory often beats negotiating on a marked-up unit already on the lot. A factory order locks in MSRP pricing before the vehicle exists, which removes the dealer's ability to price against scarcity once it arrives. This works best on trims that are not chasing a hot resale market, since a highly desirable order can still get flipped to a markup buyer if your contract terms are loose. Get the no-markup commitment in writing on the order sheet, not as a verbal promise.
Where Your Leverage Actually Comes From
Your leverage comes from being willing to buy the same car somewhere else, not from arguing that a markup is unfair. Dealers respond to competing quotes and walk-away behavior, not to complaints about pricing philosophy. If you are financing, get a preapproved rate from a bank or credit union before you walk in, since a dealer that cannot beat your outside financing has less room to make up margin elsewhere in the deal. Working with an outside buyer's advocate, which is part of what Greene Street Co. does for clients, can also strip out the guesswork of knowing which dealers in your area are actually holding firm on markups versus which ones will move.